Previewing “Almost” Every U.S. Congressional Race in “the Commonwealth”
By Noah Zolnak
There is almost no doubt that the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania will be a bellwether in the
Presidential Race this Fall. With two candidates with large reputations in “the Commonwealth” being the Incumbent President Trump, winner of PA’s crucial twenty electoral votes by only a little more than forty-four thousand votes in 2016, and Former Vice President Joe Biden, a native son of PA having spent the first few years of his life in the Commonwealth. This fact gives him one of his famous nicknames, “Scranton Joe.”
With twenty electoral votes, Pennsylvania has eighteen Congressional Districts that will be up in November will undoubtedly impact both control of the United States House of Representatives and potentially the Presidential Election. Below, will be an analysis of seventeen of eighteen PA Congressional Races (I am going to recuse myself from
analyzing the PA-13 Race, which I will explain later). Note: I will be writing this with the least
amount of bias possible. Additionally, I would identify myself as a Progressive Democrat from
Central PA, who has served as the President of the Juniata College Democrats and have worked with the Huntingdon County Democrats. Written in June 2020:
PA-1: Ms. Christina Finello (D) vs. incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R):
Finello’s Background: Borough Councilwoman (Ivyland, Bucks County) and Bucks County
Deputy Director of Housing and Human Services
Where is PA-1: All of Bucks County and a portion of Montgomery County
2018 Result: Fitzpatrick won a tight reelection race with 51.3%.
Analysis: The Fitzpatrick brothers have historically been in tight races in their Congressional
battles. Brian’s late brother, Mike, had been elected four times (2004, 2010, 2012, and 2014)
before retiring due to personal term-limits (He lost to Rep. Patrick Murphy in 2006 in a “Blue
Wave”). Fitzpatrick held his brother’s seat in 2016 by receiving 54.4%.
Both Fitzpatrick and Finello faced Primary challengers and both winning (the former receiving 63% and the latter receiving 77.6%). The interesting part comes from the voter turnout in both races, with the Democratic Race having nearly sixteen thousand more votes than the GOP Race. This should be a red flag for the Congressman, especially with Democrats overwhelmingly voting via Mail-In ballots. In 2016, President Trump virtually tied the Former Secretary of State, Hillary R. Clinton with 48% each in the old district. However, in the 2016 Presidential Election, Secretary Clinton won both counties (Bucks with 48.5% and Montgomery with 58.9%).
The June 2020 Outcome: Republican Hold (Tilt R)
Explanation: I outlined a very convincing argument for Finello, however, I believe the name
recognition and with Fitzpatrick not being endorsed by the President (at least at the moment)
may help him, especially in the Philadelphia suburbs. Also, Fitzpatrick has helped himself by
being Georgetown University’s Bipartisan Index’s third most bipartisan member of Congress.
PA-2: Incumbent Rep. Brendan Boyle (D) vs. Mr. David Torres (R)
Torres’ Background: Activist
Where is PA-2: The Northern Portion of Philadelphia
2018 Result: Boyle won reelection with 79% of the Vote
Analysis: Democrat. Philadelphia. Received 73,912 votes in the Primary compared to Torres’
14,003 votes.
The June 2020 Outcome: Democrat Hold (Safe D)
Explanation: See Analysis
PA-3: Incumbent Dwight Evans (D) vs. Mr. Michael Harvey (R)
Harvey’s Background: Military Veteran and Philadelphia 60th Ward Chairperson
Where is PA-3: Philadelphia City
2018 Result: Evans won reelection with 93.4% of the Vote
Analysis: Similar to Boyle in PA-2, the difference being this Congressional District is even more urban and more liberal and Democrat than its Northern counterpart (PA-2). Additionally, Evans received over 164,000 votes in the Primary, compared to Harvey’s 5,014.
The June 2020 Outcome: Democrat Hold (Safe D)
Explanation: This is going to be aqua blue, and always will be*.
PA-4: Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) vs. Ms. Kathy Barnette (R)
Barnette’s Background: Military Veteran and Fox News Political Commentator
Where is PA-4: The Northern Philadelphia Suburbs in Montgomery County
2018 Result: Dean won and flipped the seat with 63.5% in the “Blue Wave”
Analysis: Dean won the newly aligned seat in 2018 after the mandated redistricting after several cycles of Republican favored gerrymandering across the Commonwealth. Dean, a former PA
State Representative, went on to win the new seat in a rout in 2018. Dean also got almost
120,000 votes in the June Primary. Barnette received 56,562 votes in the Primary. Barnette
currently has no major endorsements at this time, which hurts.
The June 2020 Outcome: Democrat Hold (Likely D)
Explanation: Dean is popular in PA-4 and PA in general as Democrats generally like her.
Barnette hurts with President Trump on the ballot in representing a county where Secretary
Clinton won with 58.9% of the vote compared to Trump’s 37.4%. Biden on top of the ticket in
the Presidential in Pennsylvania, this can only help the Incumbent, Dean.
PA-5: Incumbent Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D) vs. Ms. Dasha Pruett (R)
Pruett’s Background: Photographer
Where is PA-5: Southern Philadelphia, Delaware County, and a portion of Montgomery County
2018 Result: Scanlon “flipped” the seat following the redistricting in PA ahead of the 2018
Midterms. Scanlon won in two elections on the same night (an old special election and this one).
Scanlon won this race 65.2% of the vote.
Analysis: Scanlon won the seat following the retirement of four-term Congressman Pat Meehan (R). Scanlon beat Republican Pearl Kim twice in one night in the new Fifth and old Seventh Congressional Districts. Scanlon got more than double of the total votes in a contested Republican Primary in this Race.
The June 2020 Outcome: Democratic Hold (Safe D)
Explanation: Scanlon’s popularity in the district and solid performance in the Primary will allow
her to coast all the way back to Washington for at least two more years.
PA-6: Incumbent Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D) vs. Mr. John Emmons (R)
Emmons’ Background: Chemical Engineer
Where is PA-6: Chester County, along with Southern Berks County (the Reading Area)
2018 Result: During the “Blue Wave” and “Female Wave” (four Democratic Women were
elected: Dean, Scanlon, Houlahan, and Susan Wild), Houlahan flipped this seat with 58.9% of the Vote.
Analysis: Houlahan is fairly popular as well, also having been an Air Force Officer is a
marketable asset for this district and the House of Representatives. Her background is a very interesting and good story that many voters admire and did so in 2018. Houlahan also is an excellent fundraiser, raising nearly five million dollars for her campaign. An Independent, John McHugh is also running for the seat.
The June 2020 Outcome: Democratic Hold (Safe D)
Explanation: Houlahan has only run for office once and made history in the process. Houlahan’s PA-6 is in Chester County, a usual Republican stronghold that has become more Democrat in recent elections, was one by Houlahan, the first Democrat in 166 years to do so. Additionally, Secretary Clinton won Chester County with 52.7% of the vote in 2016. Chester now leans Blue and Houlahan’s path to victory looks sharp five months out.
PA-7: Incumbent Rep. Susan Wild (D) vs. Ms. Lisa Scheller (R)
Scheller’s Background: Former Lehigh County (Allentown) Commissioner
Where is PA-7: In Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley: Lehigh, Northampton, and a portion of Monroe County.
2018 Result: Wild flipped the new PA-7 with 53.5% of the vote.
Analysis: Wild had the hardest task of the four freshmen Democratic women voted in by
Pennsylvania voters in 2018. She did not have the luxury of the Urban, Liberal Philadelphia vote. Wild did however have the luxury of Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton. Wild also has the benefit (or maybe disadvantage) of having the endorsement of Minnesota Senator and Former 2020 Presidential Candidate, Amy Klobuchar. Wild got almost an additional twenty thousand more votes than in the entire contested GOP Primary for the Race.
The June 2020 Outcome: Democratic Hold (Likely D)
Explanation: As previously alluded, Wild is the most vulnerable of the freshmen women, but
history should be on her side come November. Two out of the three counties she represents
(Lehigh and Monroe) are 2016 Clinton counties, and Northampton is a close county itself.
Wild’s endorsement by Klobuchar will also likely come with a Biden endorsement in the near
future, in what will likely be in an area called “Biden Country.”
PA-8: Incumbent Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) vs. Mr. Jim Bognet (R)
Bognet’s Background: The Former Sr. VP of Communications for Export-Import Bank of the
United States
Where is PA-8: In the Northeastern Area of the Commonwealth and represents both Scranton and Wilkes-Barre.
2018 Result: Cartwright won reelection with 54.6% of the vote.
Analysis: Cartwright, who was first elected in 2012, has seen close contests in each of his
elections, except his first one. Cartwright is expected to be in another tough matchup against
Bognet in 2020. Cook PVI has the race characterized as a Toss-Up and most other forecast calls for a narrow Democratic Victory in this seat.
The June 2020 Outcome: Democratic Hold (Likely D)
Explanation: I do understand that many of the counties that Cartwright represents will vote for the President come November. However, there are two “X-Factors” for this race to consider. The first being that Cartwright has been serving this region for seven years now, thus having an incumbent advantage. The second and perhaps most misrepresentative point is that Biden was born and partially raised in this Congressional District. Biden was born in Scranton in Lackawanna County, which is in Cartwright’s district. It is a great time to be Cartwright and take advantage of Biden’s presence in the district.
PA-9: Gary Wegman vs. Incumbent Rep. Dan Meuser (R)
Democrat Gary Wegman’s Background: Dentist
Where is PA-9: The More Rural Portion of Northeastern PA (Northumberland, Columbia,
Montour, Luzerne, Carbon, Schuylkill, Lebanon, and Berks Counties)
2018 Result: The Freshman Meuser won and held the District with 59.7% following the then
Current Representative, Lou Barletta, unsuccessful run for Senate against Sen. Bob Casey Jr.
Analysis: Gary Wegman won the Democrat primary by under 3%. Meuser had received a little under twenty-four thousand votes more than the contested Democratic Primary had. This strong showing for the freshman Republican will help him greatly. The district is notable in having Bloomsburg, Palmyra, and Jim Thorpe as notable towns.
The June 2020 Outcome: Republican Hold (Safe R)
Explanation: There is not really a place for Democrats to get votes from in this district. The best case for Wegman will be in Berks County, even though Clinton only won 42.9% of the vote in 2016 there. It is a tough task for any Democrat to compete in this district. Meuser also only has one endorsement, but it is the President of the United States, in an area that he won over 60% of the vote in most of the counties.
PA-10: Auditor General Eugene DePasquale (D) vs. Incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R)
DePasquale’s Background: Current Pennsylvania Auditor General
Where is PA-10: In the Capitol Region of the Commonwealth, consisting of all of Dauphin and portions of Cumberland and York counties.
2018 Result: Perry won re-election in a tight battle with 51.3%.
Analysis: The two of the biggest races in the country in terms of the House of Representatives have been highlighted (PA-1 and PA-10). Perry has been “in-line” with the President a lot and was even rewarded by getting an endorsement from the Forty-Fifth President of the United States. DePasquale is has a lot of name-recognition coming into this House race, having served two terms as Auditor General of PA, a position that has progressed many people who have served the positions previously. DePasquale was also one of only two statewide Democrats across the country in 2016 to win reelection in a “Trump State” (the other being Montana Governor and now 2020 Senate and Former Presidential Candidate, Steve Bullock). DePasquale is popular amongst not just Democrats but Pennsylvanians, winning reelection 50-45% and receiving over two hundred thousand more votes in the process.
DePasquale faced a Primary challenge from Hershey Attorney, Tom Brier. Brier made the
Primary much closer than most thought, having won his home of Dauphin County. DePasquale, however, did very well in York (his home) and Cumberland counties. Perry’s primary alone had 109 more votes, making a virtually even race for November.
The June 2020 Outcome: Democratic Flip (Tilt D)
Explanation: Both Perry and DePasquale are from York County making this the true
battleground of the battleground race. DePasquale will likely win Dauphin County due to its
Democratic majority of voters and its voting tendency. Cumberland county (Shippensburg and Carlisle) was definitely “Trump Country” in 2016 (56.8% to 38.7%). However, in 2018
midterms PA Governor Tom Wolf (D) won Cumberland County (50.5 to 47.4%), proving a
change in the voting tendency for the Southwestern Harrisburg Suburban County.
PA-11: Ms. Sarah Hammond (D) vs. Incumbent Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R)
Hammond’s Background: Hanover High School Hockey Coach
Where is PA-11: Southern York and Lancaster County
2018 Result: Smucker won re-election with 59.0% of the vote.
Analysis: The Pennsylvania house districts move progressively west and become more rural until we get to the Pittsburgh area. More rural tends to help the Republicans more so than the Democrats. Lancaster County voted for Donald Trump with a 57.2 to 37.8% margin in 2016 over Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton. Additionally, York County (as a whole, but in large part the portion in this district) voted for Trump by a 62.4 to 33.3% margin.
The June 2020 Outcome: Republican Hold (Safe R)
Explanation: Hammond did cruise to a victory in her battle for the Democratic Nomination.
Hammond has run for two previous elections (in the PA House and Senate) and has won all of the nominations, but not the Generals. She has a very tough battle against Rep. Smucker in a heavily Republican area of the Commonwealth.
PA-12: Mr. Lee Griffin (D) vs. Incumbent Rep. Fred Keller (R)
Griffin’s Background: Businessman (Supply Chain/Logistics for an Online Retailer)
Where is PA-12: North Central Pennsylvania (Including State College and Williamsport)
2018 Result: Tom Marino won 66% of the vote before retiring in 2019, where Keller won the
Special Election 68.1% of the vote.
Analysis: Pennsylvania is well-known for its political “T.” The “T” represents the large basket
of Republican voters in the Commonwealth. The edges of the Commonwealth (in the
Southeastern and Southwestern) being the basket of Democratic voters. In order for Griffin to win, or rather have a chance to win, he will have to win almost all the State College and the Penn State vote and win Centre county, along with Clinton (Lock Haven) and Lycoming (Williamsport), and there may be a chance. Keller has a fairly easy path to re-election.
The June 2020 Outcome: Republican Hold (Safe R)
Explanation: The following is a hard task for a Democrat, however the Centre and Clinton
county winnings are still possible: In order for Griffin to win and have a chance to win, he will
have to win almost all the State College and the Penn State vote and win Centre county, along with Clinton (Lock Haven) and Lycoming (Williamsport), and there may be a chance. Despite this, Keller has a fairly easy path to re-election.
PA-13: Mr. Todd Rowley (D) vs. Incumbent Rep. John Joyce (R)
*Note: I help and work for, along with live in this Congressional District, so I will not be able to give an unbiased opinion on the race. I will have content over the next several months with Mr. Rowley with the articles and pieces I will write for PoliticsNow. So, stay tuned!
EDITOR'S NOTE: Incumbent Rep. John Joyce won PA-13 (Altoona, Bedford, Chambersburg, Johnstown) in the 2018 "Blue Wave" year with roughly 70% of the vote.
PA-14: Mr. Bill Marx (D) vs. Incumbent Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R)
Marx’ Background: Army Veteran and High School Teacher
Where is PA-14: Southwestern PA, South of Pittsburgh
2018 Result: Reschenthaler was the lone Republican “Flip” in Pennsylvania in 2018, winning
57.9% of the Vote.
Analysis: Reschenthaler is representing in what is really the heart of “Trump Country,” the more rural suburbs across the country, especially in blue-collar regions of the country. The 2016 Presidential Election was won in these pockets of the country and in part, the reason Trump carried the twenty electoral votes that PA has. Representing western Westmoreland,
Washington, Greene, and Fayette Counties, a lot of those are blue-collar. Reschenthaler won the endorsement of President Trump already as well.
The June 2020 Outcome: Republican Hold (Safe R)
Explanation: This is historically a Republican stronghold in the Commonwealth. The Pittsburgh suburbs are traditionally more Conservative and blue-collar compared to Philadelphia and vote Republican or for Conservative Democrats.
PA-15: Mr. Robert Williams (D) vs. Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R)
Williams’ Background: Minister
Where is PA-15: In both Central and Northern Pennsylvania reaching from Cambria to Warren to Centre to Venango Counties.
2018 Result: Glenn “G.T.” Thompson won 67.8% of the vote.
Analysis: PA-15 is an incredibly rural district and also the second most Republican
Congressional District in the Commonwealth (R +20). Some of the bigger towns in the District include; Indiana, Oil City, Warren, St. Mary’s, and Punxsutawney. Thompson also has received the endorsement of the President, which may be a more added bonus for a Thompson victory in November.
The June 2020 Outcome: Republican Hold (Safe R)
Explanation: See Above.
PA-16: Ms. Kristy Gnibus (D) vs. Incumbent Rep. Mike Kelly (R)
Gnibus’ Background: Teacher
Where is PA-16: Northwestern PA (Includes Erie, New Castle, Edinboro, Meadville, and
Titusville)
2018 Result: Kelly won re-election with 51.6% of the vote.
Analysis: Kelly since 2010 (his first election) has won by double-digit percentages, except in his new 2018 district race, which became more Democrat. All of the counties in this district,
including Erie County voted for Trump in 2016 (48.6 to 47%). Erie is a heavily Democrat area, with both Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Tom Wolf winning the County in 2018 (58% for Casey and 60% for Wolf). Kelly also has the endorsement of the President, who won all the counties in this District.
The June 2020 Outcome: Republican Hold (Tilt R)
Explanation: It will be a tough race in PA-16. Kelly only received four thousand more votes than Gnibus in the June Primary. Biden on the ballot will make this is a close race and the race will be won on where is more turnout, Erie, or “the Field.”
PA-17: Incumbent Rep. Conor Lamb (D) vs. Mr. Sean Parnell (R)
Parnell’s Background: Army Veteran
Where is PA-17: Northern Pittsburgh Suburbs (North Allegheny, Beaver, and Butler Counties)
2018 Result: Lamb won re-election with 56.3% of the vote.
Analysis: Lamb has become one of the rising stars of the Democratic Party in the last couple
of years following his stunning win in March 2018 by a margin of less than a thousand votes. Lamb beat an Incumbent Representative, Keith Rothfus, in November 2018. The District is a Cook PVI of R +3, however Lamb’s popularity has him won twice and will likely win again.
The June 2020 Outcome: Democratic Hold (Likely D)
Explanation: See above.
PA-18: Incumbent Rep. Mike Doyle (D) vs. Mr. Luke Negron (R)
Negron’s Background: Member of the PA Air National Guard
Where is PA-18: Pittsburgh and Southern Allegheny County
2018 Result: Doyle ran unopposed for reelection.
Analysis: Doyle ran and won unopposed in 2018. He represents the City of Pittsburgh. Doyle
will win.
The June 2018 Outcome: Democratic Hold (Safe D)
Explanation: See Analysis.
All predictions are meant to be presented in an unbiased and factual manner, looking at past statistics from Pennsylvania's Department of State website. Politics NOW remains neutral in every race, and we thank Noah for recusing himself from predicting the PA-13 race, a race in which he will involve himself.
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