Republicans may scoff at this notion, especially when considering Trump’s popularity within the party and the GOP’s disgust for their opposition, but hear me out.
by: John Gavin
Let’s take a look at the aftermath of a hypothetical Trump victory this November. Republicans are likely to maintain control of the Senate. Four states appear to be competitive for incumbent Republicans. Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina. Democrats would need to sweep these states and hold onto Alabama to gain control of the Senate. President Trump won three of those states in 2016, including Alabama by 28 points. Not to mention, Vice President Pence would serve as a tie-breaking vote in the event of a 50-50 outcome, so the GOP could afford to lose three seats and still have control. On the other hand, Democrats look to be in a favorable position to maintain the House for a couple of reasons. First, the House in this partisan era has not typically changed dramatically in presidential year cycles. In 2000, Democrats picked up 1 seat. In 2004, Republicans picked 3 seats. Yes, 2008 was an outlier with Democrats picking up 21 seats, but even that would still be one seat short of what Republicans need this year to regain control (22 pickups). Moving on, in 2012, we saw an 8 seat change and in 2016, only 6 seats flipped. Trump has also consistently trailed Biden in national polling. Assuming Trump loses the popular vote again, a Republican wave in the House becomes even more unlikely. So, by and large, the status quo in Washington we’ve seen in the last two years would be here to stay, no matter who wins this election.
Republicans who are expecting conservative legislation to be passed in Trump’s second term would be very disappointed because that will not happen with a Democratic house. So what could Trump do with another four years? He could continue to reshape the courts with a Republican senate, possibly even one or two more Supreme Court appointments. However, even that will have its limits. We have a long way to go until the 2022 midterms, but conventional wisdom suggests Democrats would be poised to take control of Congress. Recent two-term presidents, from Reagan to Obama, all had their opposing party control both chambers of Congress for their final two years in office. That should not be any different with Trump. All in all, his second term could be viewed as a two-year extension for reshaping the courts, and a four-year extension as a figurehead with limited power.
Winning three White House terms in a row also has not been done since 1988, so Democrats would be the favorites to win in 2024 and potentially take office with Congress in their control. It may be tedious to make predictions in lockstep with recent trends, but the previous two off-year elections in second presidential terms allowed the out-party to lay the groundwork to take office with a trifecta in the following presidential elections. Trump winning another term may be beneficial for his party in the short term, but not in the long term. The president is very unpopular among minorities, and Republicans have not kept up with the shifting demographics. A 2020 loss would give them the opportunity to soul-search, shake off Trump’s populism, and move forward to a post-Trump era. Many conservatives may not like to hear that. I understand Trump is popular among the GOP, but his appeal to the overall electorate and the long-term prospects have to be taken into account.
Texas and Arizona have plurality white populations and are trending blue. Georgia is another Republican stronghold trending blue. These trends have not reversed under Trump. The GOP cannot afford to lose any of these states from their column, especially Texas. It is true that prior to this pandemic that the African-American and Hispanic unemployment rates were at all-time lows. Trump and many Republicans have pointed such figures out as evidence that their policies are appealing to minorities, but their economic successes have not translated to a newfound fondness for the GOP. This is not to say that a Trump win would paralyze his party, but it could very well set back the party and make it difficult for them to be formidable in future presidential elections for a period of time.
Now let’s imagine a Joe Biden victory…
Yes, many Republicans would be heartbroken. They missed out on an opportunity to reshape the Supreme Court for a generation. The media and liberals defeated their president. Some will fear a rapid leftward shift under Biden, but that will not happen. As I said earlier, the status quo in Congress is going to remain whoever wins this election. That said, a Republican Senate will not allow Biden to pass any meaningful progressive legislation. Biden’s presidency would actually be less consequential than a Trump second term. He would be able to accomplish very little without the Senate. He would lack flexibility with his appointees and any potential Supreme Court pick. Fast forward to the 2022 midterms; Republicans would have an excellent chance to take back control of Congress given the fact that midterm performances are historically poor for the incumbent president.
Now, let's imagine how the 2024 cycle would shape up with Biden in office. If he ran for reelection, he would be 82, having to run another grueling campaign. The former Vice President is already noticeably past his prime. It is difficult to imagine him in better physical and mental shape after four years of wear and tear in office, making him a very weak incumbent if he chose to run. What if he didn't run? It would be the first time we’ve had a president who chose not to run again since Lyndon Johnson in 1968. The White House would be an open seat in 2024, effectively making it a tossup before we even know who’s running. So, would a Biden presidency be all that bad for Republicans? History will not deem it consequential, and it would give the GOP chance to rebrand their message under a lame-duck president.
It is safe to say that most Republicans resent the bold progressive policies that have become mainstream within the Democratic party. Some may even fear the prospect of America shifting too far to the left one day. Voters must understand the consequences that reelections can produce. The combination of fatigue for the ruling party and the desire for a change gives the opposition more fuel in the following elections.
President Bush’s 2004 victory is an interesting example because of what one can argue that it produced. Prior to 2010, comprehensive healthcare reform was the white whale of American politics. Many presidents tried and failed to pass it. The combination of Bush’s unpopularity, a hunger for change, and a recession allowed the Democrats to compile sweeping victories in 2006 and 2008, producing strong enough majorities in Congress, which played a major role in the passing of the Affordable Care Act, which is detested by Republicans.
I’m not suggesting that it would be a foregone conclusion that a Trump victory would lead to a dramatic shift to the left, Democrats would need to replicate the margins they boasted after 2008 which is a tall task, but it would not be a shocker to see a bold progressive take office in 2025 with both chambers of Congress.
All opinions expressed within the contents of this article reflect the views and values of the author, not Politics NOW.
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